April 2026
Drivers of willingness to repay Parish Revolving funds (PRF) under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: a Bayesian Latent Class Logistic Regression (LCLR) approach
This study examines the determinants of beneficiaries’ willingness to repay the Parish Revolving Fund (PRF) under Uganda’s Parish Development Model (PDM), using nation ally representative data from the 2024 EPRC PDM Survey. The study applies a Bayesian Latent Class Logistic Regression (LCLR) model to account for observed and unobserved heterogeneity in repayment behaviour. Results show significant variation in repayment willingness by gender, education, region and wealth. Financial literacy, awareness of repayment terms, larger PRF amounts and shorter disbursement periods increase repayment willingness, while long delays and low household wealth reduce it. The Bayesian model i...
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March 2026
Perceptions of doing business decline, on account of pessimistic outlook
Uganda’s Business Climate Index (BCI) declined during the quarter October–December 2025, by 25.5 index points from 125.6 to 100.1, signaling weakening business sentiments largely driven by pessimistic expectations about the near-term economic outlook. Particularly, business expectations for the January–March 2026 quarter remain subdued on account of anticipated weakened capacity utilisation, rising input costs and reduced profitability. The subdued business outlook emerged with the uncertainty that is associated with the General Election season. At the sectoral level, business sentiments across all sectors registered an improvement in the quarter under review. The industr...
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February 2026
Process Assessment of the Parish Development Model (PDM) Programme Implementation in Uganda
The Government of Uganda (GoU) launched the Parish Development Model (PDM) in February 2022 with the objective of transitioning 3.5 million households (33 percent) from subsistence to a monetised economy. The PDM is premised on seven pillars, that is, agriculture value-chain development (Pillar 1); infrastructure and economic services (Pillar 2); financial inclusion (Pillar 3); social Services (Pillar 4); community mobilisation and mind-set change (Pillar 5); Parish-Based Management Information System (PBMIS) (Pillar 6); and governance and administration (Pillar 7). The PDM programme aims for a holistic transformation of rural livelihoods by integrating subsistence households into the money...
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February 2026
Ensuring Continuity: Succession Planning Strategies for Ugandan Family Enterprises
Family businesses are central to Uganda’s economy, contributing over 70 percent of GDP and forming the majority of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises. Despite their importance, most family businesses cannot transition beyond the founding generation. This policy brief examines succession planning practices and implementation challenges among established family businesses in Uganda. The findings show that some established family businesses are adopting promising succession planning practices, including early exposure of the younger generation to the business, hands on learning across operational levels, deliberate transfer of business networks, and gradual formalisation of transitio...
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January 2004
Rural Taxation in Uganda: Implications for Growth, Income Distribution, Local Government Revenue and Poverty Reduction
The purpose of the research underlying this report is to contribute towards the process of policy change in Uganda with respect to local government taxation. The report sets out to cover an additional set of policy priorities related to local revenue generation from those that have arisen mainly from a local revenue enhancement perspective.
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July 2019
Encouraging fertilizer adoption through risk free sample purchase: A randomized control trial in Uganda
Small farmers in sub-Saharan Africa use very few farm inputs such as fertilizer. Candidate explanations include lack of liquidity, present bias, risk aversion, limited availability of fertilizer, lack of training, and the risk of purchasing counterfeit fertilizer. We tested a “risk free sample purchase” sales offer that addresses all of these constraints. Farmers received a small amount of fertilizer, and only repaid if their harvest increased more than the cost of fertilizer. Farmers who repaid would have the opportunity to place a second order with upfront payment and free delivery. Results from our randomized trial in Mityana district in Uganda showed that the risk free sales offe...
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March 2019
State of Uganda’s Maize Industry
Maize is one of the most important cereal crops in Uganda. It is part of the 12 agricultural commodities that Government considers to have the potential to remarkably contribute to increasing rural incomes and improving livelihoods, and food and nutrition security.1 Maize doubles both as a cash and food crop for most smallholder farmers. In addition, it is a major ingredient in poultry and livestock feeds. In terms of food and nutrition security, maize compares favourably with root and tuber crops as an energy source because it contains large quantities of carbohydrates, proteins, vitamins and fats in the kernels.
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September 1996
Nature and Determinants ofDomestic Savings in Uganda
Adequate saving is an essential precondition for sustained economic growth. A higher rate of savings means less consumption now in return for increased wealth and future consumption. The increased Wealth will reflect reduced foreign liabilities; and where concerns about foreign indebtedness are constraining economic growth, increased domestic savings will mean more domestic investment. An open economy like that of Uganda can attract foreign savings to help finance growth, but risk and other considerations limit the extent to which domestic investment can proceed independently of domestic savings. The close correlation between levels of investmentand rates ofdomestic saving across count...
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