Free Access | 2024-04-12

Potential effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns on long-term educational attainment in Uganda

Authors/Editors: Corti Paul Lakuma ,  Linda Nakato (PhD) ,  Taylor Hanna ,  Mohammod T. Irfan ,  Stellah Kwasi

Abstract:

The disruption due to COVID-19 in the pandemic’s first two years has caused a significant loss in learning and quality of education in Uganda. Over 15 million learners are estimated to have missed school and some teachers resorted to other economic activities. This reduction in enrollment has consequences for other population-level education outcomes in the long run. This policy note uses the International Futures system to explore the potential impact of COVID-19 learning disruption on educational outcomes and long-term productivity in the 15 sub-regions of Uganda up to 2050. We examine the pre-pandemic development trajectory, which represents a “No COVID” scenario, and then model an “Education Shock” scenario that simulates the longterm impact of total school closure between 2020 and 2021. The “Education Restitution” scenario simulates an ambitious but reasonable sustained five-year recovery policy push from 2023 that improves and returns key education indicators to their pre- COVID trajectory.