Free Access | August 2024

UGANDA’S MARKET ACCESS OPPORTUNITIES UNDER THE AFCFTA AGREEMENT: AN ANALYSIS OF EXPORT POTENTIAL AND JOB CREATION

Authors/Editors: Isaac M.B. Shinyekwa (PhD) ,  Aida Kibirige Nattabi ,  Justine Luwedde ,  Philemon Okillong ,  Sanday Amos (PhD) ,  Hildah Namuleme

Abstract:

The paper identifies market access opportunities for Uganda under the AfCFTA, assesses offers and Uganda’s capacities to supply products in the identified markets and estimates the jobs that are likely to be generated as a result of exploiting the expanded markets. To achieve this, we use different analytical approaches, including desk review, export trade trend analysis, relevant trade indices, and simulations using a CGE model. We use data from trade-map atlas of economic complexity, the Bank of Uganda and the Uganda Revenue Authority to analyse Uganda’s Potential Market Access Opportunities and destinations within the AfCFTA. Furthermore, we use the Ugandan Social Accounting Matrix 2016/17 to simulate the jobs that are likely to be created. We find that globally, the EAC and COMESA are the leading destinations of Uganda’s exports, accounting for about 35 and 46 percent of the market share respectively. The top products identified include coffee, cement, sugar, tea, maize, palm oil, milk and cream, and iron and steel products, among others. It is established that exploiting the unrealised export potential under the AfCFTA will generate 217,068 direct jobs and 438,461 indirect jobs.